Historic Blue Wave Lifts All Dem Boats in November Midterm Election

Santa Barbara voters joined a national wave on Tuesday, backing Democratic candidates up and down the ballot as returns pointed to a seismic shift in Washington — with Democrats reclaiming sizable majorities in both the House and the Senate, according to the Santa Barbara Independent.

But locally, the night's biggest storyline remained unresolved: the city's first open mayoral contest in four years, featuring two Democrats — Councilmembers Kristen Sneddon and Eric Friedman — locked in a race too close to call as of press time.

A Generational Shift on the City Council

The clearest local verdict came in the Santa Barbara City Council race, where all three Democratic Party–backed candidates opened commanding leads over split fields of challengers. With many ballots still to be counted, the Independent reported Ian Baucke at 62 percent, Gabe Escobedo at 69 percent, and Devon Wardlow at 51 percent.

Combined, the three represent a generational changing of the guard, poised to tilt the seven-member council younger and more progressive. That shift will matter on nearly every issue facing the city — housing policy, the future of State Street, and the city's increasingly tight budget reserves.

Sneddon vs. Friedman: Too Close to Call

With roughly 35 percent of votes counted, Friedman held a lead of about 500 votes — 2.5 percentage points — over Sneddon, the Independent reported, with final results possibly not certain until at least Wednesday as late vote-by-mail and provisional ballots are processed.

The race split the local Democratic establishment. Sneddon carried the party's official endorsement; Friedman countered with strong financial backing, raising more money thanks to sizable donations from downtown business interests, real estate investors, landlords, and a national real estate political action committee. He was also backed by his former boss, Congressmember Salud Carbajal.

The two differed sharply on substance. Sneddon supports rent stabilization, which Friedman opposes. On the State Street Master Plan, Sneddon favors an eight-block pedestrian promenade; Friedman has argued that half that length is more likely to thrive economically.

Two other candidates trailed far behind: former school board member Wendy Sims-Moten drew 5.51 percent (1,031 votes) and Matt Kilrain 2.37 percent (443 votes).

Whoever wins will succeed Mayor Randy Rowse, who captured the office four years ago in a five-candidate field. Rowse, a fiscal conservative, frequently found himself isolated on key council decisions — the State Street redesign, rent stabilization, and how deeply to draw down city reserves. A central question now is how well either mayoral contender will mesh with the incoming progressive councilmembers and the three incumbents to form a more cohesive governing majority.

The Most Consequential Local Race May Be in Santa Maria

While the 5th District supervisorial contest is centered in Santa Maria, its outcome could reshape the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors — arguably making it the most consequential race on the local ballot.

Ricardo Valencia — a high school teacher, Santa Maria school board member, and outspoken progressive — held a razor-thin lead over Maribel Aguilera, a decline-to-state moderate, 50.65 percent to 48.85 percent, with only 18 percent of ballots counted as of press time. That margin amounted to fewer than 100 votes.

The race drew unusual outside spending: Sable Offshore, the oil company pursuing restart of offshore production along the Gaviota Coast, donated more than $100,000 to a political action committee dedicated to defeating Valencia, the Independent reported. Aguilera held a considerable fundraising advantage overall, while Valencia carried the Democratic Party endorsement. Though a majority of Santa Maria voters are registered Republicans, the city typically sees exceptionally low turnout — a dynamic that left both campaigns bracing for shifts as counting continues.

The result will help determine the board's balance on offshore oil, housing, and county budget priorities for years to come.

Carbajal, Hart Cruise; Becerra Leads Governor's Race

Elsewhere on the ballot, the Democratic wave held. Congressmember Salud Carbajal and state Assemblymember Gregg Hart both easily won reelection with early margins exceeding 67 percent, the Independent reported.

In the governor's race, Santa Barbara voters overwhelmingly supported Democrat Xavier Becerra — the state attorney general — over Republican Steve Hilton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Nationally, the election played out as a repudiation of the Trump administration and the escalating gasoline prices tied to its war with Iran — a conflict the Independent reported has lifted oil company profits by a record $130 billion in its first six months. That pocketbook anger helped drive turnout to unusually high levels across the country, and Santa Barbara was no exception, with Democrats watching results at a packed election night gathering hosted by the Democratic Women of Santa Barbara County at Validation Ale in the Funk Zone.

What Comes Next

For Santa Barbara residents, the practical consequences arrive quickly. A new mayor and at least three new councilmembers will take on decisions that have stalled for years — the State Street Master Plan, rent stabilization, and how to manage the city's strained reserves — with a council likely tilted further left than at any point in recent memory.

The Santa Barbara County Elections Office will continue processing ballots in the coming days, and updated results in the mayoral and 5th District supervisorial races could shift the picture substantially. Voters can track the latest tallies on the county's official results page and the Independent's live election coverage.

This article is based on election-night reporting by the [Santa Barbara Independent](https://www.independent.com/2026/11/03/historic-blue-wave-lifts-all-dem-boats-in-november-midterm-election/); all vote counts reflect partial returns as of late Tuesday night and are subject to change as additional ballots are counted.