Santa Barbara County’s 5th District heads to a November runoff

For the first time in years, Santa Maria and Guadalupe residents will get a second chance to weigh in on who leads their county district. The June 2 primary for Santa Barbara County's 5th District supervisor seat ended without a majority winner, sending the race to the November general election — a development that carries real stakes for North County communities grappling with housing costs, immigration enforcement, and a county budget under extraordinary strain.

Where the Votes Stand

As reported by the Santa Maria Sun, updated vote counts released by the Santa Barbara County Elections Office on June 8 show high school teacher and Santa Maria-Bonita School District board member Ricardo Valencia leading with 41.7 percent of ballots counted — 3,370 votes — followed by Santa Maria City Council member and attorney Maribel Aguilera at 31.2 percent (2,521 votes). Cory Bantilan, the outgoing supervisor's longtime chief of staff, came in third at 26.6 percent and is out of the running.

The margin has widened considerably since election night. Noozhawk reported that at 11 p.m. on June 2, fewer than 100 votes separated Valencia and Aguilera. The Santa Maria Times noted that as of the day after the primary, Valencia led Aguilera by just 154 votes out of 4,976 ballots counted — roughly 15.7 percent turnout from the district's 31,650 registered voters. The Elections Office has said about 1,295 votes remain to be counted countywide, making a reversal in standings unlikely. Under California Elections Code, the county must certify results by July 2, according to Noozhawk.

An Open Seat — and a Historic Shift

The contest is notable for what it replaces. KCLU reported that outgoing Supervisor Steve Lavagnino is retiring after four terms representing northern Santa Barbara County — the first time the seat has been contested since 2010. Lavagnino ran unopposed in the last three election cycles, according to the Santa Maria Sun, and his votes on the five-member Board of Supervisors were reliably conservative. Bantilan, who served approximately 15 years as Lavagnino's chief of staff, according to the Santa Maria Times, carried on many of his boss's policy priorities — including addressing encampments along the Santa Maria Riverbed and enforcing warrants for individuals with felony records. Lavagnino endorsed Bantilan, the Santa Barbara News-Press reported.

The two candidates who did advance represent a sharp break from that era. The Santa Barbara Independent observed that both Valencia and Aguilera are children of Mexican immigrants and the first in their families to attend college — a reflection of the district's demographics. Following post-2020 redistricting, the 5th District covers northern Santa Maria, the city of Guadalupe, and the unincorporated community of Tanglewood. The district has 14,235 registered Democrats, 7,132 Republicans, and 7,842 No Party Preference voters.

Two Candidates, Contrasting Visions

Valencia, a Santa Maria High School teacher, has centered his campaign on progressive priorities: protecting immigrant communities from ICE enforcement, expanding affordable housing using county-owned land, investing in youth and child care programs, and opposing expansion of the North County Jail. "It's youth-led, and that's what gives me faith for the future," he told the Santa Maria Sun, describing his grassroots, volunteer-driven operation. He is backed by the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party, the California Working Families Party, Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club, and labor organizations, according to the Santa Barbara News-Press. As of mid-May, Noozhawk reported he had more than $102,000 remaining in his campaign account.

Aguilera, a practicing attorney who has served on the Santa Maria City Council, is positioning herself as a data-driven, nonpartisan problem-solver. Her top priorities include streamlining the permitting process to make housing more affordable for young families, investing in youth programs, and strengthening public safety. "This is not political. This is nonpartisan," she told the Santa Maria Sun, challenging voters to ask any candidate: "Do they have a plan? Do they know where they're going to get the money from?" Aguilera had $88,796 in her campaign coffers as of mid-May, according to Noozhawk. Though she does not carry a party label, the Santa Barbara County Republican Party's voting guide urged voters not to support Valencia or Bantilan, effectively nudging Republicans toward Aguilera.

Looking ahead to November, Valencia told the Sun he plans to appeal to Bantilan's former supporters, arguing there are areas of common ground — such as "holding our government accountable." The Santa Barbara Independent predicted the November race will be intense, with growers, oil industry PACs, and the Republican Party expected to mobilize against Valencia's progressive agenda.

The Budget Crisis Looming Over the Winner

Whoever wins the seat in November will step into a fiscal emergency. The Santa Barbara News-Press reported that county officials are attempting to balance an estimated $1.64 billion spending plan for fiscal year 2026-27, driven by plunging state and federal support. Noozhawk reported that county staff recommended cutting more than $70 million, primarily by eliminating positions, reducing contracts, and deferring capital projects — with as many as 131 filled positions and 118 vacant roles on the chopping block.

The cuts directly affect Santa Maria. The Santa Maria Sun reported that the proposed budget would consolidate three county-run pharmacies — including the one serving Santa Maria — into a single Lompoc facility, a move projected to save nearly $8.5 million but that could leave uninsured patients scrambling. The board's final budget hearings were scheduled for June 16 and 18. The new 5th District supervisor would take office in January, inheriting whatever budget is adopted.

What's Next

The Santa Barbara County Elections Office is releasing updated vote counts on June 11 and must certify the June 2 primary results by July 2, according to Noozhawk. Elsewhere on the ballot, the Santa Maria Sun reported that 2nd District Supervisor Laura Capps appears set to avoid a November runoff by holding 78 percent of the vote; and county Clerk, Recorder, and Assessor Joseph Holland appears headed for defeat, with challenger Melinda Greene leading at roughly 60 percent — though Greene still needs 50 percent plus one to win outright in the primary.

For 5th District residents in Santa Maria and Guadalupe, the next several months will offer an extended chance to scrutinize two candidates with deep roots in the community — and sharply different ideas about how to lead it.