Sneddon Narrowing Gap in City Mayoral Race Against Friedman

Santa Barbara's mayoral contest remains very much undecided, and it's getting closer. According to the Santa Barbara Independent, City Councilmember Eric Friedman's lead over fellow Councilmember Kristen Sneddon narrowed from 479 votes on election night to 374 votes as of Thursday, November 5, after roughly 10,000 additional ballots were counted in the days following the midterm election.

The next batch of results isn't scheduled until Tuesday, November 10, at 3 p.m., meaning both campaigns — and the city itself — face a long weekend of waiting.

A Race Still Within Reach

About 45 percent of the total possible ballots in the mayoral race have now been counted, up from 35 percent on election night, the Independent reported. With an estimated 30,000 city ballots still outstanding, political observers say it remains mathematically possible for Sneddon to overtake Friedman — provided the current trend, which has favored her in the late count, holds.

That trend, however, is not guaranteed. The late ballots counted so far have sent mixed signals in other local races. The three Democratic Party-backed City Council candidates — Devon Wardlow, Ian Baucke, and Gabe Escobedo — saw their margins tick down slightly, though all three remain comfortably ahead and effectively out of reach for their opponents. Meanwhile, in the Fifth District supervisorial race, progressive Democrat Ricardo Valencia's lead over Maribel Aguilera, a declined-to-state candidate backed by North County business, oil, agricultural interests, and the Republican Party, actually grew from 1.4 percent to 4 percent.

The mayoral contest pits two sitting councilmembers against each other — both Democrats, but representing different factions of the city's political landscape. Sneddon, backed by the Democratic Party, generally leans progressive. Friedman, a more centrist Democrat, has the support of his former boss, Congressmember Salud Carbajal, as well as downtown real estate and business interests.

Historic Tightness

By nearly any measure, this is the closest mayoral race Santa Barbara has seen in recent memory. Two other candidates round out the field: Wendy Sims-Moten, who has drawn 5.8 percent of the votes counted so far, and Matt Kilrain, with 2.4 percent — about 1,900 votes combined between them.

Those third- and fourth-place votes could ultimately matter. In California's general election format for nonpartisan local offices, there is no runoff between the top two mayoral finishers — whoever finishes first wins outright. With the top two candidates separated by just a few hundred votes, every remaining ballot in the stack carries outsized weight.

For residents, the outcome will shape the direction of a city grappling with familiar Central Coast pressures: housing production, homelessness, downtown economic recovery, and strained city budgets. The mayor — who serves a four-year term and presides over City Council meetings — sets much of the tone for how those debates unfold, even though policy power is shared among the seven council members.

What Happens Next

The Santa Barbara County Elections Office will release its next round of results Tuesday afternoon, November 10, if then — late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by Election Day remain valid under California law as long as they arrive within the counting window, which is why final certification can stretch on for days or weeks after election night.

That means even Tuesday's update may not settle things. If the margin continues to tighten at the pace seen this week — Friedman lost roughly 100 votes of his lead on the first 10,000 ballots counted — the race could remain in flux well into the certification period. In especially tight contests, campaigns sometimes request recounts, though neither camp has publicly signaled that step.

For now, both Sneddon and Friedman are left doing what candidates in razor-thin races do: watching the count, thanking supporters, and waiting.

Why the Late Count Matters

The shift between election night and the days after is a familiar pattern in California elections. Late-arriving mail ballots, vote-by-mail ballots dropped off at polling places, and provisional ballots tend to be counted in the days following the election — and they don't always break the same way as the early vote.

That dynamic is playing out clearly in Santa Barbara. Friedman performed well enough on election night to hold a 479-vote edge, but the first wave of post-election counting has chipped away at that margin. Whether the roughly 30,000 outstanding city ballots continue trending toward Sneddon — or revert to the pattern that gave Friedman his initial lead — is the question that will decide who leads the city for the next four years.

Residents can track updated results through the Santa Barbara County Elections Office as counts are released. The 805.living team will continue following this race through the next tally and final certification.