Sneddon Pulls Ahead in Santa Barbara Mayoral Race That’s Still Too Close to Call

One week after Santa Barbara went to the polls, the city's mayoral race has flipped. Councilmember Kristen Sneddon took the lead over fellow Councilmember Eric Friedman on Tuesday, November 10, when the latest batch of ballots moved her 296 votes ahead — the first time she has led since Election Night, when she trailed by nearly 500 votes, according to the Santa Barbara Independent.

The updated results were released mid-afternoon Tuesday — in the middle of a City Council meeting — and landed with visible emotional force at City Hall. Sneddon supporters exchanged fist bumps and grins, the Independent reported, while Friedman sat in what the outlet described as "a lonely moment in a lonely room." Councilmembers Michael Jordan and Meagan Harmon, both Friedman backers, struck a wry tone; Jordan quipped, "This is what the good old days look like."

How the Count Has Moved

The trajectory of the race has been steady and, for Friedman, troubling. On Election Night, Friedman led by roughly 500 votes. By Friday, November 6, that margin had shrunk to 312 votes. Tuesday's update erased it entirely and put Sneddon ahead by 296.

The race remains too close to call. County election officials estimate about 25,000 ballots remain to be counted countywide — but that figure spans all of Santa Barbara County, not just the City of Santa Barbara, and no one outside the elections office knows exactly how many city ballots are still in the pipeline. That uncertainty has fueled intense speculation among campaign consultants, the Independent reported.

Still, the trend lines favor Sneddon. Late-arriving ballots — those dropped off at vote centers or arriving by mail close to the deadline — have historically skewed younger and more progressive, and 2026 has amplified that pattern. The next update is scheduled for Thursday afternoon.

Two Democrats, One Real Choice

Although both Sneddon and Friedman are lifelong Democrats and two-term councilmembers, the race drew unusually sharp ideological lines for a nonpartisan local contest. Sneddon carried the Santa Barbara Democratic Party's endorsement, and her campaign mailers advertised it. She was also the candidate of choice for rent stabilization advocates.

Friedman, more moderate by temperament and ideology, became the de facto conservative in the race. That positioning carried costs in a heavily Democratic year: his campaign benefited from major independent spending by a committee affiliated with the Chamber of Commerce and the national Board of Realtors, based in Chicago — support that, in a midterm in which younger voters were motivated to push back against the first two years of the Trump administration, the Independent reported was "not a turn-on."

A Progressive Sweep — Except at the Top

While the mayor's race has been a nail-biter, the three City Council contests were anything but. The most visibly progressive candidates in each field — Devon Wardlow, Ian Baucke, and Gabe Escobedo — won their races decisively, cementing a leftward shift on the seven-member council. Baucke, a councilmember-elect, was on hand Tuesday as the mayoral results dropped, the Independent reported.

The mayoral contest was a four-way race, with candidates Wendy Sims-Moten and Matt Kilrain also on the ballot. But from early returns onward, it effectively became a two-person duel between Sneddon and Friedman — a tortoise-and-hare dynamic in which Friedman's early lead slowly eroded as late ballots were tallied.

What Comes Next

The next release of results is expected Thursday afternoon, November 12, and subsequent updates will follow as county election officials work through the remaining ballots, including any that require signature verification or curing. Under California election law, ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive in the days after, and officials have weeks to complete the official canvass before certifying results.

For Friedman to reclaim the lead, he would need to overcome a 296-vote deficit with what could be a relatively small pool of city ballots remaining — an uphill climb given that the late vote has consistently broken toward Sneddon, though not mathematically impossible until the count is final.

One Election Day detail may help explain the drawn-out count: elections workers reported an unusually large number of voters walking their ballots to the polls in person rather than mailing them, the Independent reported — a sign of voter anxiety about mail delivery that added to the volume of late-processed ballots.

Why It Matters for Residents

The outcome will shape Santa Barbara's direction on housing, rent policy, and development for the next four years. A Sneddon mayoralty, aligned with the incoming progressive council majority, would likely prioritize tenant protections and a slower-growth approach informed by neighborhood input. A Friedman win, by contrast, would give moderates a counterweight — and a veto-capable bully pulpit — against a council that has otherwise swung left.

It would also mark a generational moment: either the city's first woman mayor in decades or a continuation of the business-friendly coalition that has influenced City Hall politics for years.

For now, Santa Barbara residents will have to keep watching the count. In a race that has swung 800 votes in a week, nothing is decided until the last ballot is tallied.